We find that it is likely that if Israel establishes a military base in Somaliland, this move will carry many connotations and repercussions, which can be clarified.

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Cairo (ANN)-The potential alliance between Israel and Somaliland constitutes an important geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa, carrying with it profound repercussions for the region, which was revealed by the Middle East Monitor website on October 15, 2024, that there are Israeli intentions to establish a military base in the Somaliland region.

 

Somaliland contains huge natural resources, including potential oil reserves estimated at about 110 billion barrels, in addition to gold and other minerals.

The separatist region that declared its independence unilaterally in 1991, But it has not been recognized internationally.

This Israeli approach comes in the context of Iran’s use of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, which broke out on October 7, 2024, to threaten Israeli interests through indirect confrontations, through its agents in the region. In response, Israel seeks to build strategic alliances with countries in the region, especially those overlooking vital sea lanes, with the aim of undermining the capabilities of the Houthis and weakening Iran’s influence in the region.

The report said, We find that there is a group of factors that push Israel to open channels of communication with Somaliland, which can be reviewed, as follows:

Strategic location: Somaliland is located in the heart of one of the most important global waterways. It overlooks the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is a strategic link in the maritime trade routes linking the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean.

This distinct geographical location of Somaliland, Israel wants to exploit it to undermine the activity of the Houthi movement, by creating an outlet on the Red Sea. The Houthi group controls most of the Yemeni coast overlooking the Red Sea.

Related: Israel’s moves to recognize Somaliland and UAE’s efforts to strengthen

For security accounts: The Houthi movement has disrupted maritime traffic, prompting a growing number of shipping partnerships to redirect their cargo ships to avoid the Red Sea, while taking more time-consuming and expensive alternatives to reach their destination. In light of what was mentioned above, we find that if a rapprochement occurs between Israel and Somaliland, it is likely that there will be joint cooperation to confront Houthi maritime terrorism supported by Iran, through the exchange of intelligence information to detect potential maritime threats and combat maritime piracy, which is what It contributes to ensuring freedom of navigation

For the economic factor: Somaliland has tremendous economic capabilities. Somaliland contains huge natural resources, including potential oil reserves estimated at about 110 billion barrels, in addition to gold and other minerals. Israel can strengthen relations with Somaliland in the economic field by concluding cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding on capacity building in the fields of agriculture, tourism, energy and infrastructure development.

But, We find that it is likely that if Israel establishes a military base in Somaliland, this move will carry many connotations and repercussions, which can be clarified. say the report.

Related: The Horn Of Africa States: The Continuing Foreign Exchange Crisis

First:  Undermining Iranian influence in the Horn of Africa: We find that one of the pillars of Iranian foreign policy is opposition to Israel and the West, and the pursuit of an alternative regional establishment. Therefore, Iran has emerged over the past decade as a major regional player in Yemen supporting Ansar Allah (known as the Houthis). Iran also worked to exploit Yemen’s geostrategic location along one of the most important waterways in the world, the Strait of Bab Al-Mandab, which gives it great influence over global shipping traffic. Iran has provided the Houthis with drones and cruise missiles.

This enabled them to target more than 80 commercial ships with drones and missiles, which led to a threat to ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and disrupted global trade routes. In light of the previous review, Israel is trying to find a foothold to control the Bab al-Mandab region and the Gulf of Aden.

What can be achieved through rapprochement with Somaliland.
Second Increased activity of terrorist movements: There is no doubt that if a rapprochement occurs between Israel and Somaliland, it will lead to an increase in terrorist attacks by the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement, which will reject the Israeli presence and will work to mobilize more fighters to launch terrorist attacks by exploiting feelings of hostility towards Ethiopia.

There is a possibility that Al-Shabaab will benefit from the agreement to mobilize and recruit more fighters to wage a “religious war” against Israel, which will lead to destabilization in the region.

Although there is no official statement on the part of Somaliland regarding the possibility of Israel inaugurating a military base within its territory, either affirmatively or negatively, as of the writing of this research paper, by following the political interactions in Somaliland, it is possible to provide a possible perception regarding the calculations of the political elite.

In Somaliland, regarding the possible rapprochement with Israel, which can be reviewed as follows:

Study of the expected reactions: We find that the calculations of the political elite in Somaliland will take into account, when studying the Israeli offer to establish a military base within its territory, the most prominent expected reactions.

Regarding this step, which can be reviewed, as follows:

At the level of neighboring countries: There is no doubt that if Israel grants international recognition to Somaliland, this step will certainly be met with rejection by the Somali federal government, as well as countries that support the principle of preserving the unity and territorial integrity of Somalia, and oppose any move by separatist movements. In the Horn of Africa region. Taking into account that Ethiopia may welcome the Israeli military presence in Somaliland.

At the international level: We find that the United States of America is likely to bless Israel’s inauguration of a military base in Somaliland. The potential Israeli rapprochement with the Somaliland government will enable it to reach the airport and port of Berbera, which overlooks the Gulf of Aden, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and this will protect Israeli economic and security interests as well as American ones in the Horn of Africa region.

This would protect Israeli and American economic and security interests in the Horn of Africa region, and balance Chinese investments in the region. Here we find that there is a very important question about the extent of the possibility of the United States of America and Israel international recognition of the Somaliland government. We find that the American administration has a firm position represented in the unity of Somalia. Where it cooperates with the Somaliland government as well.

With the Somali central government to achieve common goals, the issue of the status of Somaliland is considered an internal matter to be decided by the Somali people. The American administration fears that if it supports Somaliland to obtain international recognition, it will encourage separatist movements throughout the African continent, which will lead to destabilization on the continent.

.As for the Israeli side, it is likely that Israel will engage in it is possible that Israel will engage in negotiations with Somaliland regarding the issue of recognizing it as an independent state, in exchange for normalizing relations in Somaliland.

 

Various levels, which will affect the unity and sovereignty of the Somali state.
– Making progress on the issue of international recognition: Through the previous review, and clarifying the most prominent expected reactions, we find that there is a possibility that Somaliland will agree to that Israeli offer to establish a military base within its territory, taking into account that Israel is a strong ally of the United States of America.

If relations with Israel are strengthened, there is a possibility that Somaliland will obtain international recognition as an independent state, which is what Somaliland seeks. Moreover, the President of Somaliland is making unremitting efforts to engage in discussions with the American administration, with the aim of obtaining international recognition.

In addition, the political elite in Somaliland is working to strengthen relations with international financial institutions controlled by the United States of America, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which stimulates foreign investment in Somaliland, which will reflect positively on achieving economic development. Which enables the Somaliland government to enjoy political legitimacy, political stability and security.

In conclusion, it can be said that Israel seeks to expand its influence, especially with regard to finding an outlet on the Red Sea. This strategy aims to secure its interests and achieve its goals in the Horn of Africa region. Therefore, the countries of the African region and the international community must work together to strengthen the rule of law and prevent violations of regional sovereignty to create a stable environment in the Horn of Africa.

The Orginal Report Arabic version by Asmaa Adel, the Egyptian Center for Thought and Strategic Studies.

Source: shorouknews.com//

prepared and translated by Arraale M. Jama, a freelance journalist and human rights activist.

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