The deepening alliance between Iran and Russia presents a formidable challenge to the Horn of Africa region.
On January 15, 2025, Russia and Iran formalized their alliance by signing a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty.” This treaty seeks to bolster their economic and military cooperation as a countermeasure against Western sanctions that have increasingly isolated both nations. The implications of this partnership are expected to have considerable repercussions on the security dynamics in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, regions already fraught with challenges such as piracy, smuggling, and militant activities.
A key aspect of the treaty is its emphasis on military collaboration, which includes joint military exercises, coordinated operations, and personnel training initiatives. Such collaborative efforts are likely to result in a marked increase in naval activities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. These waterways are vital for international trade and maritime security, and any augmentation of military presence could disrupt the already fragile security atmosphere, leading to increased risks of confrontations and instability.
Reports have emerged indicating that Russia is providing satellite tracking data related to commercial vessels to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, facilitated through Iranian intermediaries. In addition, Russia is reportedly contemplating supplying advanced anti-ship missiles to these rebels. This potential transfer of sophisticated weaponry could significantly enhance the Houthis’ capabilities, enabling them to launch targeted attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Such actions could disrupt shipping routes, escalate tensions in the region, and pose serious challenges to international maritime traffic and regional stability.
The deepening alliance between Iran and Russia presents a formidable challenge to U.S. and Western influence in both the Middle East and East Africa. As these two nations deepen their involvement in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, it may facilitate a realignment of regional power dynamics. Neighboring countries might feel compelled to reassess their security strategies and diplomatic relations in light of this new partnership. The partnership’s implications could extend beyond immediate military cooperation; it may lead to greater geopolitical maneuvering among global powers vying for influence in these vital regions.
This evolving situation can be understood as not merely a bilateral agreement between Iran and Russia but as part of a broader strategic landscape that includes regional players and potential proxy conflicts. The military collaboration and the support for proxy groups will likely create a more complex and dangerous environment in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The implications of the Russia-Iran partnership extend directly to Somaliland, especially if Western nations diminish their engagement in the region. The strategic Port of Berbera is particularly vulnerable, and a lack of focus from Western powers could have dire consequences. Here’s a deeper look into the ways in which Somaliland stands at risk:
1. Geopolitical Shifts
The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are crucial maritime corridors that facilitate a substantial portion of international trade. An increase in military activities or influence from Russia and Iran could threaten the existing balance of power. If Western countries reduce their involvement in this region, particularly concerning strategic ports like Berbera, it could create a vacuum that Russia and Iran, potentially through local proxies, would be poised to fill. Such a shift could endanger maritime trade and regional security.
2. Security Threats
The Port of Berbera AirPort is a linchpin for regional trade and security frameworks in the Horn of Africa. A decrease in Western military and diplomatic engagement could leave Berbera vulnerable to aggression from Iran and its allies, such as the Houthis, as well as from emerging regional influencers like China, Turkey, and Somalia. These entities have demonstrated the capability and intent to target maritime assets, making the port susceptible to threats. Should Iran and Russia enhance their support for hostile groups, the resulting instability could jeopardize Somaliland’s economic interests and its national security.
3. Economic Implications
The economic repercussions of increased geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden could severely affect Somaliland’s economy, which heavily relies on the Port of Berbera. Disruptions to shipping routes due to heightened military activities or retaliatory actions by hostile forces can adversely impact trade flows, result in rising insurance premiums for shipping vessels, and diminish Berbera’s attractiveness as a safe transit point for cargo. Furthermore, a lack of consistent Western investment and support could hinder infrastructure projects and security enhancements necessary to maintain the two ports’ competitive advantage.
4. Diplomatic Isolation
Somaliland’s ongoing efforts to assert its independence and establish diplomatic ties could be undermined by a retreat of Western powers from the Horn of Africa. A shift in strategic priorities might lead to increased diplomatic isolation of Somaliland, making it more vulnerable to pressures from both regional neighbours and non-Western powers. Such isolation could stifle Somaliland’s aspirations for greater international recognition and support.
5. Strategic Importance of Berbera
The escalating strategic competition in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden necessitates recognizing the Port of Berbera and Airport as a pivotal asset for maintaining regional security and stability. Western military and economic support can fortify Somaliland’s capabilities to manage and protect this critical infrastructure. By countering the adverse impacts from the Russia-Iran partnership and their allies, such support can help solidify Berbera’s role as a secure and stable maritime hub.
In conclusion, the Somaliland government must prioritize highlighting the Port of Berbera’s importance to regional stability. It should actively advocate for sustained Western engagement and investment, ensuring that the strategic implications of the Russia-Iran partnership are adequately addressed. This proactive approach will help handhold regional security discussions and market Berbera as a pivotal point for international trade and security concerns in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.Bottom of Form
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ENG.ABDI ALI BARKHAD
Independent Political Analyst
Hargeisa Somaliland tra50526@gmail.com whatsapp: +252 63 4411160 17/1/2024
Abdi Ali Barkhad, a voice for Somaliland’s sovereignty, passionately defends its independence and democratic progress while critiquing external influences and advocating for internal unity and development.