Somalia is currently facing an alarming security and political crisis, with the situation deteriorating rapidly across multiple fronts:
- Territorial Decline and Al-Shabaab Expansion
Al-Shabaab, the militant group with ties to Al-Qaeda, has made significant gains, demonstrating its capacity to capture new territories and overpower Somali government military installations. Recent incidents, including the overrunning of several military bases, highlight a drastic decline in the authority and effectiveness of the Somali state. Their intensified operations in and around the capital, Mogadishu, have escalated concerns among both citizens and officials. Noteworthy events include the attempted assassination of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, which underscores the escalating threats to political leadership. Moreover, the group has escalated mortar attacks on highly fortified locations, such as the Halane compound—home to international military and diplomatic missions—and the Italian Embassy, indicating that these secure areas are now facing credible threats. This situation marks a critical turning point for Somalia, as the very stability of the capital is placed in jeopardy, raising fears of further violence and upheaval.
Al-Shabaab is designated as a terrorist organization by key international entities, including the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and the African Union. This classification highlights the severe security threat that the group poses, particularly in the fragile context of Somalia.
- African Union Mission (ATMIS/AUSSOM) Challenges
Mr. Sivuyile Thandikhaya Bam, Deputy Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission (DSRCC) for Somalia and Deputy Head of Mission, remarks underscore the increasing alarm regarding the underfunding of African Union peacekeeping forces, which have faced shortages for seven consecutive months. This sustained lack of financial support significantly undermines their operational capacity, leaving them ill-equipped to confront security threats. The recent withdrawal of U.S. funding, coupled with the European Union’s hesitance to augment its contributions, further compromises Somalia’s security architecture, essentially allowing Al-Shabaab greater latitude to expand its influence and operations within the region.
- U.S. Strategic Calculations: Berbera Port
Reports suggest a strategic pivot by the United States towards Berbera Port in Somaliland for repositioning military assets, reflecting a comprehensive recalibration of geopolitical priorities. Reopening the former Soviet-era base in Berbera could provide the U.S. with a secure operational hub in a relatively stable part of Somalia as Mogadishu becomes increasingly volatile. This development may have several significant implications:
- It would solidify Somaliland’s strategic importance in the Horn of Africa, enhancing its status as a critical player in regional security dynamics.
- The port could serve as a fallback base for U.S. military operations in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait, and Gulf of Aden, providing a vital logistical point of support amidst rising tensions in the region.
- Clan Conflicts and Internal Fragmentation
Beyond the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab, inter-clan violence in regions such as Galgaduud, Mudug, and Gedo presents an additional layer of instability. Driven by underlying issues of land disputes, revenge killings, and competition for scarce resources, these conflicts exacerbate the already fragmented political landscape. The continuous cycle of violence not only erodes central authority but also complicates efforts at national reconciliation, impeding progress toward lasting peace.
- Political Elitism and Denial
The current political elite in Somalia exhibits a concerning trend of prioritizing grandstanding over substantive governance. Actions such as Prime Minister Hamse Barre’s visit to Lasanood, while seemingly symbolic, fail to tackle the fundamental issues that underpin the nation’s fragmentation and instability. This performative approach is evident as the federal government remains engrossed in superficial displays of unity while critical areas of governance are neglected:
- Electoral frameworks necessary for democratic processes remain unresolved, hindering the electoral timeline.
- Fundamental constitutional questions affecting federal-state relations are left unaddressed, creating uncertainty in governance.
- Efforts for meaningful reconciliation with federal states are shallow, lacking the depth needed to foster genuine unity.
Finally, Somalia stands at a critical inflection point regarding its statehood and governance. Without immediate and substantive reforms, regional and international security partners may begin to reassess their engagement strategies—a shift that appears imminent, especially as attention turns to more stable alternatives like Somaliland. ma. In this climate, the Villa- Somali government faces the risk of international marginalization if it continues to favor superficial optics over essential, transformative substance in its governance approach.
ENG.ABDI ALI BARKHAD
Independent Political Analyst
Hargeisa Somaliland tra50526@gmail.com 11/4/2025
Engineer Abdi Ali Barkhad is a retired Somali electrical engineer, political analyst, and writer known for his comprehensive commentary on the politics of the Horn of Africa and international relations. He has published numerous articles analyzing current policies in the region and is a staunch advocate for the cause of the Republic of Somaliland. His insights have been featured on platforms such as Araweelo News Network etc.