The recent statement by Ambassador Camey

The recent statement by Mr. Abdihakim Abdullahi Haji Camey

#Araweelo News Network

The recent statement by Mr. Abdihakim Abdullahi Haji Camey, the South African ambassador representing Villa Somalia, sheds light on the complex and unstable security situation in the Horn of Africa. His remarks about the alliance between the Dhulbahanta clan and the Ogaden fighters, who receive support from the new police force of Ethiopia’s Somali Region, indicate a coordinated effort that could disrupt the security dynamics in Somaliland and Ethiopia. If this collaboration is indeed happening, it suggests a larger agenda beyond the ongoing conflict in Lasanod town, possibly involving territorial ambitions and insurgency activities aimed at the Ogaden Region of Ethiopia

The Lasanod Conflict: Since late 2022, Lasanod, located in the contested Sool region, has been a flashpoint between Somaliland forces and local militias. Initially, the conflict seemed to be between Somaliland’s government and Dhulbahanta clansmen who sought autonomy or association with Puntland. However, the involvement of external actors, including all Darod clan and Ogaden fighters, and possibly units of Ethiopia’s Somali Region police force, indicates that the conflict has become more complex and multifaceted.

The Role of Villa Somalia: Villa Somalia has been vocal in its support for elements within the Sool region. The recent declarations by both Mr. Camey and the Somali Foreign Minister reveal a strategic stance by the Somalia government. This support may include logistical backing, intelligence sharing, or even the provision of military resources. If Villa Somalia is indeed providing material support to these militias, it would be a direct violation of international norms, raising concerns for regional stability and prompting reactions from neighboring states, particularly Ethiopia.

The Ogaden Region and Regional Dynamics: The mention of liberating the Ogaden Region from Ethiopia is a highly provocative statement. The Ogaden, officially known as the Somali Region of Ethiopia, is predominantly inhabited by the Ogaden clan, which constitutes only 20% of the population compared to other clans in the region. It has long been an area of ethnic tension and insurgency and has served as a stronghold for the now largely inactive Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Although the ONLF signed a peace agreement with the Ethiopian government in 2018, there is a possibility that groups claiming allegiance to the Ogaden cause could be reactivated or rebranded under new leadership. If the militia groups in Sool align with such movements, it could reignite old conflicts and complicate Ethiopia’s efforts to maintain stability.

Bouhadle as a Strategic Hub: Bouhadle, a small town along the Somaliland-Ethiopia border, has become a strategic staging ground. This location allows militias to cross easily between Somaliland and Ethiopia’s Somali Region, making it a hotspot for logistical operations and coordination between the insurgents. The support from the Somalia government, combined with the use of Bouhadle as a base, suggests the existence of a broader strategy that seeks to establish a foothold in contested border areas.

Implications of the Current Situation:

Threat to Somaliland’s Sovereignty: If the reports of these alliances are accurate, Somaliland is facing a serious challenge to its control over the Sool region and potentially other border areas. The alignment of local militias with external fighters not only undermines Somaliland’s authority but also threatens to destabilize its security architecture.

Ethiopia’s Security Dilemma: The assertion by Mr. Camey that their militia is prepared to liberate the Ogaden Region puts Ethiopia in a delicate position. Ethiopia has faced insurgencies in its Somali Region for decades and has been wary of Villa Somalia’s involvement in stirring ethnic tensions. Any significant cross-border incursion or attack could force Ethiopia into a military response, raising the risk of a protracted conflict that would draw in multiple actors.

Potential for Escalation: The involvement of various forces, including the new Somali Region police, suggests a semi-state-sponsored operation. The claim of advanced military equipment implies that these groups are better armed than typical clan militias, making them a formidable threat. This, combined with Villa Somalia’s diplomatic and possibly financial support, could tip the balance in favor of the insurgents unless Somaliland and Ethiopia respond decisively.

Geopolitical Ramifications: If Villa Somalia is perceived as actively destabilizing the region by backing secessionist movements or insurgencies, it could face diplomatic backlash, not only from Ethiopia and Somaliland but from broader international stakeholders. This could include the African Union, IGAD, and even countries like the United States, which have a vested interest in counterterrorism and stability in the Horn of Africa.

Strategic Recommendations for Somaliland and Ethiopia:

Joint Military Operations: Immediate collaboration between the Somaliland National Army (SNA) and Ethiopian defense forces is necessary to neutralize the Bouhadle base and disrupt supply lines between Somalia and the militias. A targeted offensive, combined with intelligence sharing, could weaken the militants’ operational capabilities.

Enhanced Border Security: Both countries should enhance surveillance and patrols along their shared border. This includes deploying additional troops, constructing fortified posts, and using drone technology to monitor the movement of armed groups.

Diplomatic Pressure on Villa Somalia: Somaliland and Ethiopia should seek the support of regional bodies like IGAD and the African Union to apply diplomatic pressure on Villa Somalia to cease its support for the insurgency. Presenting evidence of Villa Somalia’s involvement in destabilizing activities could bolster their case for sanctions or other punitive measures.

Counter-Propaganda and Information Warfare: To counter the narrative being pushed by Villa Somalia, Somaliland and Ethiopia should enhance their strategic communications, ensuring that both domestic and international audiences know the true nature of the conflict. Engaging the media and using platforms to highlight the insurgents’ actions could garner support and isolate Villa Somalia diplomatically.

Political Consolidation in Somaliland:

Somaliland’s internal political factions need to set aside differences and unite against the external threat. The leadership of the various political parties should present a unified front, emphasizing national security over political rivalries.
The situation in Lasanod and the Sool region, along with the statements from Villa Somalia, signify a turning point in the regional conflict. A coordinated, multi-pronged strategy that leverages military, diplomatic, and strategic communications will be crucial for Somaliland and Ethiopia to maintain stability and counter the emerging threat.

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Hargeisa Somaliland