The honeymoon celebration meetings between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and President Hassan Sheikh of Villa Somalia

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That’s a sharp observation. Hassan Sheikh’s approach seems reactionary rather than strategic, focusing on short-term optics rather than sustainable, long-term solutions. This is particularly evident in how Somalia engages with Ethiopia and Somaliland—it appears more about making political statements rather than crafting a pragmatic and achievable roadmap.

Meanwhile, the opposing side (likely Ethiopia and Somaliland) seems to have a clearer vision rooted in defined strategic interests. Despite the delays, Ethiopia still views access to the Red Sea as an essential long-term goal, while Somaliland remains firm on its statehood ambitions and regional partnerships.

If these rumours hold weight, they suggest a deliberate and well-funded effort to weaken Somaliland’s political standing from within. Hassan Sheikh’s relentless focus on undermining the MoU aligns with his broader strategy of obstructing Somaliland’s pursuit of recognition. If WADANI is indeed influenced or financially backed by him and President Ismail Gele, serious concerns will arise about the party’s true priorities and whether they are acting in the best interest of Somaliland or external forces.

However, internal party dynamics can be unpredictable. Even if WADANI has received support from Hassan’s camp, maintaining loyalty to his agenda might not be sustainable in the long run, especially if public sentiment in Somaliland overwhelmingly rejects such an alignment.

Somaliland has endured and overcome far greater existential threats. The failed attempts by the Siad Barre regime to erase Somaliland only strengthened its national identity and resolve. Hassan Sheikh should take a lesson from history: efforts to undermine Somaliland’s sovereignty have always backfired, reinforcing its determination rather than diminishing it.

His reliance on Abiy Ahmed to suppress political opposition within Somalia clearly shows weakness. He wouldn’t need external intervention to manage internal affairs if he were truly in control. The fact that three major regional states remain beyond his grip underscores the fragility of his centralized ambitions. Instead of focusing on Somaliland, he should address the deep fractures within Somalia itself.

The historical parallels drawn between Hassan Sheikh’s contemporary actions and the desperate political maneuvering of Siyad Barre in 1988 are both striking and troubling. In that turbulent era, Barre prioritized his political survival at the expense of Somalia’s national interests, which ultimately paved the way for his own demise. His decision to betray the western Somali Ethiopia cause—an attempt to appease the Ethiopian leader Mengistu Haile Mariam—was a fateful error that alienated many and destabilized his regime.

In a troubling reflection of this past, Hassan Sheikh seems to be retracing those same missteps. He proposes significant territorial concessions to Ethiopia to dismantle the existing Memorandum of Understanding and reassert control over Somalia’s restless and rebellious regions. This precarious gamble, intended to consolidate his influence, mirrors Barre’s misguided strategy and raises alarms about its potential consequences.

If history is any indicator, the path he has chosen is fraught with peril, likely to collapse under the weight of its inherent contradictions and the discontent it stirs among the populace. As echoes of the past resound into the present, one can only speculate on the ramifications of such politically motivated decisions, which risk plunging the nation deeper into chaos.

The spectacle in Mogadishu, with women performing inappropriately to welcome Abiy Ahmed, was indeed a desperate and undignified attempt to gain favor. Only months ago, Hassan framed Abiy as an enemy, declaring a so-called “jihad” against Ethiopia—yet now he is bending over backward to win his approval. This kind of inconsistency not only weakens his credibility but also exposes his political instability to both allies and adversaries.

Abiy Ahmed is a calculated strategist. He is unlikely to be swayed by superficial gestures, especially when his long-term interest—access to the Red Sea—depends more on Somaliland than on Hassan’s shaky promises.

Abiy Ahmed is playing a long-term strategic game, while Hassan Sheikh and his allies are consumed by their short-sighted obsession with Somaliland. Ethiopia understands that a divided and internally weakened Somalia serves its interests, as it creates an opportunity to expand its influence and potentially secure territorial and maritime access with minimal resistance.

By deepening tribal divisions and exacerbating internal conflicts, Ethiopia ensures that Somalia remains too preoccupied with its instability to present a unified front. Hassan Sheikh, instead of strengthening his position, is ironically accelerating this fragmentation by focusing all his energy on undermining Somaliland rather than addressing Somalia’s vulnerabilities.

If Ethiopia is indeed waiting for the right moment to act, do you think Somaliland should take proactive steps to counter this strategy, or is it better positioned to simply let events unfold and capitalize on them when the time is right?

The information contained in the article posted represents the views and opinions of the author and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions commentators. the article a opininian of the author don’t necessarily reflect the Editorial policy of Araweelo News Network.

ENG.ABDI ALI BARKHAD   

Independent Political Analyst
Hargeisa Somaliland         tra50526@gmail.com           28/2/2025