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Somalia: The militant group’s Build-Up and Strategic Positioning
The militant group’s Al-Shabaab is preparing to take control of Mogadishu and establish its governing authority within the next two weeks. This bold move exploits the current political instability gripping the Federal Government and the capital city. ⁶The group has reportedly intensified its militant militias operations and recruitment efforts, seeking to capitalize on the growing discontent among the populace and the fragmentation of political power. In light of recent clashes and the fragile security situation, local observers express concerns that Al-Shabaab could potentially rally support from disaffected communities, further challenging the legitimacy and authority of the existing government.
1. The militias group of militant Al-Shabaab, has mobilized approximately 3,000 foot soldiers and 200 highly trained elite units in strategic locations near the Dara Salaam, Afgooye, and Jaseera areas. This significant troop presence indicates a well-coordinated effort to empower their regional stronghold.( Intel Briefs)
2. The militant group’s overarching strategy is to launch a concerted offensive aimed at capturing the capital city, Mogadishu. In addition to their military ambitions, they are actively working to entice several key ministers from President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration, as well as a number of influential parliamentarians, to defect and join their ranks in the formation of a rival government.
3. According to reliable sources within military intelligence, preparations for this operation are rapidly advancing, with expectations that significant actions will commence within the next two weeks. This timeframe suggests a period of heightened tension and potential instability in southern Somalia as Al-Shabaab seeks to leverage its military reinforcements and political manoeuvring.
Al-Shabaab has intensified its operations in the Middle Shabelle region, successfully seizing control of several strategic towns. In a significant development, the President of Hirshabelle has abandoned his post in Jowhar, fleeing to Ali Guduud village after allegedly negotiating a deal with Al-Shabaab that allows the militant group to assert dominance over both Jowhar and the Mahadayweyne districts. This capitulation underscores the pressure faced by local leaders amid the escalating conflict.
Moreover, the group has captured the Balcad district, which lies a mere 30 kilometres from the capital, Mogadishu, raising concerns about the imminent threat to the capital itself. Al-Shabaab’s strategy appears to mirror conflicts observed in Syria, where similar tactics were employed to destabilize governing bodies. Their objective seems to be to compel the current Somali government into negotiations, seeking an audacious share of power that includes 30% representation in government ministerial positions and the prime minister’s high-stakes role. This calculated move reflects a broader ambition to influence Somalia’s political landscape, adding urgency to the need for a cohesive response from the international community and local security forces.
President Hassan Sheikh’s administration is currently navigating a complex array of domestic political challenges, which include the delicate process of normalizing relations with Ethiopia and managing persistent internal conflicts with various Federal Member States and opposition parties. This tumultuous political landscape has inadvertently allowed Al-Shabaab to increase its activities and influence.
Unresolved disputes between the federal government and regional authorities exacerbate the worsening security situation, leading to a fragmented governance structure. Additionally, opposition parties are capitalizing on the instability, undermining the government’s authority.
Suppose the Somali government fails to execute a challenging and effective strategy to address the escalating internal conflicts and the rising threats posed by Al-Shabaab. In that case, it risks exacerbating the already precarious situation in the region. This proposed course of action has garnered significant backing from a majority of the Hawiye Clan and influential business leaders who recognize the urgency of the challenges at hand. Additionally, support appears to extend to certain high-ranking military officials, who have drawn parallels to tactics employed by the Taliban in their struggles. This alignment underscores a critical need for decisive action to stabilize the country and counteract extremist influences.
The information contained in the article posted represents the views and opinions of the author and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions commentators. the article a opininian of the author don’t necessarily reflect the Editorial policy of Araweelo News Network.
ENG.ABDI ALI BARKHAD
Independent Political Analyst
Hargeisa Somaliland tra50526@gmail.com 8/3/2025