The outcomes of President Hassan’s visit could have profound implications  For Somaliland.

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The official visit of Mr. Hassan, the President of Villa Somalia, occurs within a context of increasing significance and strategic importance for both Somalia and Ethiopia. His arrival in Addis Ababa was met with an exceptionally warm and unprecedented welcome, which signifies a remarkable evolution in diplomatic relations. This event is particularly noteworthy as it marks the first occasion in 40 years that a Somali president has been granted such an elaborate reception in Ethiopia.

The impressive welcome included various ceremonial honours and protocols, reflecting the high regard in which Mr.Hassan is held by Ethiopian officials. This historic hospitality not only highlights the changing dynamics in the Horn of Africa but also suggests a potential shift towards collaboration and mutual interests between the two nations. Both countries are engaged in meetings based on a political give-and-take agreement that will remain confidential.

The primary agenda driving Ethiopia’s extraordinary welcome includes two main objectives:

  1. Ethiopia aims to bolster its role in the African Union-led Somalia Operations Mission (AUSOM), enhancing its capacity and presence in peacekeeping efforts.
  2. One of Ethiopia’s critical aspirations is to secure a strategic foothold on the Red Sea, which would include access to a naval base and port facilities. This access is essential for Ethiopia’s maritime trade and security interests, especially given its landlocked status.

Conversely, President Hassan’s visit is underscored by his pressing agenda, which includes:

  1. A significant point on President Hassan’s agenda is to seek the support of the Ethiopian military in a campaign to oust the current president of Jubaland, an autonomous region within Somalia. This move aims to consolidate his influence and control in the federal states of Somalia.
  2. President Hassan is also keen on ensuring that the Somali federal government regains authority over states that have drifted toward autonomy. He seeks concerted support from Ethiopia to bolster the central government’s grip on power.
  3. With the next presidential elections looming, President Hassan is looking to the Ethiopian government for assistance in implementing a fair one-man, one-vote electoral system. This initiative is critical for him to regain power, emphasizing his determination to ensure a victory at any cost.

The outcome of President Hassan’s discussions is expected to yield a remarkable agreement. He is anticipated to lend his approval to the Ethiopian government’s request to establish a naval base and port on the Red Sea. This arrangement would not only bolster Ethiopia’s strategic maritime capabilities but also signify a gentleman’s agreement that highlights the shifting alliances and cooperative ambitions between the two neighbouring nations.

 Implications for Somaliland:

  • The potential discussion about granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea might directly challenge Somaliland’s claim to independent control over its coastline. This could lead to internal political debates and public outcry, as it touches on sensitive issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
  • Allowing Ethiopia access could bring economic benefits, such as increased trade and investment. However, it could also pose security risks, especially if the region becomes a point of contention or if external powers gain influence over Somaliland’s strategic assets.
  • This development could push Somaliland to reconsider its alliances and diplomatic strategies. If Ethiopia aligns more closely with Somalia, Somaliland might need to seek stronger support from other regional or global powers to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence.
    • If President Hassan agrees to Ethiopia’s request, it could lead to a formal agreement, symbolizing a significant geopolitical shift. This would not only enhance Ethiopia’s maritime capabilities but also signal a deeper Ethiopian-Somali alliance, potentially at Somaliland’s expense.
    • In response, Somaliland may escalate diplomatic efforts to assert its autonomy and secure international recognition. This might involve engaging more actively with international bodies or seeking partnerships with other countries to strengthen its position.
    • The agreement could alter the balance of power in the Horn of Africa, potentially leading to new alliances or conflicts. External powers’ involvement in the region’s strategic assets could either stabilize or further complicate the security landscape.

Conclusion:

The outcomes of President Hassan’s visit could have profound implications for the Horn of Africa. For Somaliland, the challenge will be to navigate this evolving landscape without compromising its sovereignty or long-term aspirations. The situation demands careful consideration of the regional power dynamics and strategic diplomacy to safeguard Somaliland’s interests.

The information contained in the article posted represents the views and opinions of the author and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions commentators. the article a opininian of the author don’t necessarily reflect the Editorial policy of Araweelo News Network.

By ENG.ABDI ALI BARKHAD

Independent Political Analyst As a proud Somali Ethiopian born in Dire Dawa, I have gained valuable experiences that shape my perspective and ambitions. My educational journey in this vibrant country (Ethiopia) has equipped me with knowledge and skills that drive me toward a brighter future.