The security situation in Somalia has reached a critical
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The Culuma Islamist fighters (formerly of Al-Shabaab) are like Chameleons; they change their true colors.
The security situation in Somalia has reached a critical juncture with the emergence of the new Culumo fighters, a faction comprised predominantly of former Al-Shabaab Islamist militants. These individuals, who have now pledged allegiance to the Abgaal clan, are primarily concentrated in the Hirshabelle State and the capital city of Mogadishu. This transition marks a significant shift in Al-Shabaab’s strategic policy, as the group adapts its tactics to better align with local community dynamics and grievances.
The Hawiye community’s tentative acceptance of the Culumo fighters suggests a potential pathway for the reintegration of former adversaries into the local social fabric. Historically, the relationship between these combatants and the community has been marked by distrust, but this recent development suggests a willingness to explore reconciliation. This evolving dynamic raises critical questions regarding the future of governance and security in the region, particularly concerning how local leaders will navigate the balance between reconciliation and the potential for renewed conflict among various factions.
Furthermore, the implications of incorporating former militants into local power structures could profoundly reshape political alliances and community cohesion in the area, impacting both civilian safety and the overall stability of the region. As these shifts unfold, it will be crucial for both national and local stakeholders to engage thoughtfully in dialogue and policymaking to ensure that the path forward prioritizes peace and development for all affected communities.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Villa-Somalia is currently based in the tumultuous Hirshabelle district, a region plagued by ongoing conflict and political instability. In this challenging environment, he is striving to secure the allegiance of his tribal kin, the Abgaal clan. However, his attempts to rally support from the Abgaal clansmen have encountered significant obstacles. Many in the clan are hesitant to align with the government forces, leading to a palpable decline in troop morale among the ranks. This discontent is compounded by the dire security situation on the ground and lingering grievances regarding the government’s approach to local governance and representation. As President Mohamud navigates these complexities, the urgency for a cohesive strategy to stabilise the region and build trust among the Abgaal becomes increasingly critical.
Credible sources indicate a growing trend among soldiers who are becoming increasingly sympathetic to the emerging Culuma Islamist fighters. This group is making strategic comparisons with former ISIS combatants in Syria, who successfully integrated themselves into the Syrian government by cloaking their identities in civilian attire. These ISIS fighters not only gained operational ground but were also supported by subtle acceptance from a range of international stakeholders. This dynamic has raised concerns about the potential normalization of extremist ideologies within the ranks of military personnel, as many find themselves swayed by the ideological narratives presented by the Culuma fighters.
In a similar vein, the Culuma fighters, comprised of former al-Shabaab militants, are implementing a range of strategic tactics aimed at establishing a solid foothold in the region. They are actively seeking to cultivate alliances and garner support from powerful factions within the Hawiye clan, as well as potentially from other influential groups. Analysts warn that if the current trajectory persists, there is a significant risk that the Culuma fighters could soon take control of Villa-Somalia, the seat of the Somali government. This shift could destabilize the political landscape, leading to increased tensions and further conflict within the already volatile environment.
The neighboring countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somaliland should closely monitor the evolving security landscape in the region, particularly in light of the recent resurgence of former Shabaab fighters, now identifying themselves as Culuma fighters. (religious leaders fighters) These groups, which are characterised by their religious affiliations, pose new challenges to stability and security. These nations need to collaborate on intelligence sharing and develop comprehensive strategies to address potential threats and prevent any spillover of violence across their borders. By remaining vigilant and proactive, they can work together to mitigate the risks associated with this shifting militant landscape.
ENG.ABDI ALI BARKHAD
Independent Political Analyst
Hargeisa Somaliland tra50526@gmail.com 26/3/2025
Engineer Abdi Ali Barkhad is a retired Somali electrical engineer, political analyst, and writer known for his comprehensive commentary on the politics of the Horn of Africa and international relations. He has published numerous articles analysing current policies in the region and is a staunch advocate for the cause of the Republic of Somaliland. His insights have been featured on platforms such as Araweelo News Network and etc.