The political landscape between Ethiopia and Eritrea has reached a critical juncture.
the escalating tensions near Ethiopia’s border with Eritrea
The political landscape between Ethiopia and Eritrea has reached a precarious turning point, dangerously close to the brink of armed conflict. Both nations are resolutely prepared for potential hostilities, mobilising their military forces and on high alert for any sign of escalation. The Eritrean government, headquartered in Asmara, has taken an active role in the ongoing internal strife among the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) factions. It has notably aligned itself with Dr.Debretsion Gebremichael, the chairman of the TPLF, who advocates for a more aggressive stance in the region.
On the other hand, the interim president of the Tigray administration, Dr Getchew Reda, has adopted a pro–Addis Ababa position, which has further inflamed tensions between the two factions. This ideological divide complicates internal dynamics and threatens to spill over into wider regional instability. The military readiness of both countries, coupled with the shifting alliances within the TPLF, creates a volatile environment ripe for confrontation, potentially escalating into a broader conflict involving international stakeholders.
The current escalation of tensions between Asmara and Addis Ababa has the potential to erupt into a devastating conflict, which would have severe repercussions not only for the two nations involved but also for the entire Horn of Africa. The government of Eritrea has secured substantial military assistance from Egypt, highlighted by the delivery of advanced anti-aircraft missile systems. This military collaboration underscores the strategic partnership between the two nations, rooted in shared interests and mutual benefits.
Moreover, Egypt is Eritrea’s principal financial supporter, providing critical resources to support its military capabilities. There are also indications that the Saudi government might consider extending its support to Eritrea should hostilities escalate, which would further complicate the already intricate geopolitical landscape in the region. This potential involvement of external powers raises concerns about an expanded conflict that could draw in neighboring countries, thereby destabilizing the broader area and affecting international stability.
Related: Ethiopia and Israel bilateral discussion
On the other hand, the Ethiopian government enjoys backing from a coalition of nations, both directly and indirectly involved in the conflict. Among the nations providing tacit support are Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel, all of which have vested interests in promoting stability in the region. The United States and several European Union (EU) member states are also inclined towards assisting in the overthrow of what they perceive as a dictatorial regime, with hopes of empowering a stable, democratic governance in Eritrea
In response to the escalating tensions, approximately 10,000 opposition soldiers are reportedly undergoing training along the Ethiopian border with Eritrea, signalling preparation for potential military engagement. Replacing Eritrea’s current regime is crucial for establishing stability in the Horn of Africa, an area plagued by security challenges.
In my geopolitical analysis, it seems that the Eritrean government is at a significant disadvantage, and the likely outcome of a military confrontation would be its downfall. A new government could emerge, potentially receiving the international community’s backing. Such a shift could facilitate a friendly administration between the two countries, and Ethiopia might restore access to critical assets such as the Assab Port. Ultimately, addressing the ongoing crisis and instability in the region hinges on resolving these geopolitical tensions, particularly given the international concerns regarding the support of Islamist terrorist groups by the Asmara regime. The implications of a significant conflict would resonate far beyond the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea, influencing the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Eritrea’s Strategic Vulnerabilities
While Eritrea has maintained a strong military presence, several factors make it vulnerable to regime change in the event of a large-scale conflict:
- Eritrea’s economy is weak, largely due to its isolation and heavy reliance on conscription labor. It lacks major international trade partnerships, and ongoing sanctions have further crippled its economic stability.
- Unlike Ethiopia, which has multiple regional and international allies, Eritrea remains relatively isolated. Its past strained relations with the U.S., European Union, and even the African Union could mean limited external support in a conflict.
- The Eritrean population has long suffered under extreme militarization and authoritarian rule. An internal uprising, coupled with external pressure, could accelerate the regime’s collapse.
However, the government of President Isaias Afwerki has shown remarkable resilience in maintaining control, even during times of internal dissent and economic hardship.
ENG.ABDI ALI BARKHAD
Independent Political Analyst
Hargeisa Somaliland tra50526@gmail.com 14/3/2025
Engineer Abdi Ali Barkhad is a retired Somali electrical engineer, political analyst, and writer known for his comprehensive commentary on the politics of the Horn of Africa and international relations. He has published numerous articles analysing current policies in the region and is a staunch advocate for the cause of the Republic of Somaliland. His insights have been featured on platforms such as Araweelo News Network and etc.